The monster low-pressure system forecast for this week has reached Italy. On Thursday, 8 October 2026, Protezione Civile alerts are in effect across large parts of the country. Tuscany is under an orange warning until the afternoon. Eleven further regions are on yellow. In Pomezia, south of Rome, water has already flooded several roads. Meanwhile, the Scirocco is pushing Sicily towards summer temperatures. The main cold front is due at the weekend.
Tuscany on orange alert until 5 pm
The Dipartimento della Protezione Civile has issued an allerta arancione across the whole of Tuscany for today, Thursday. It remains in force until 5 pm, after which it will be downgraded to yellow. Heavy rain, hail, flood and landslide risk, and storm gusts exceeding 80 km/hare expected. Eleven further regions are on yellow: Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Lombardia, Liguria, Marche, Umbria, Lazio, Abruzzo, Molise, Campania, Basilicata and Puglia.
In numerous Tuscan municipalities, mayors have issued orders closing schools. Those affected include Grosseto, Capalbio, Orbetello, Monte Argentario, Castiglione della Pescaia, Carrara, Pontremoli, Fivizzano, Piombino, Portoferraio, Livorno, Pistoia and Pescia, among others. The decision rests with each individual mayor. The list is being updated on a rolling basis.
Pomezia underwater, 100 litres of rain possible
South of Rome, water has already flooded several roads. An underpass on the Via Pontina Vecchia near the Hotel Selene filled completely. A lorry became stuck up to its bonnet in mud. A road traffic accident occurred on the Via Pratica di Mare, the access road to the Statale Pontina. Allagamenti are affecting several districts of Pomezia. Residents report that the Pontina Vecchia has chronically floodedin comparable situations for decades, with routine maintenance works failing to provide a lasting remedy.
The forecast model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) anticipates over 100 litres of rain per square metre falling within just a few hours in parts of Italy. According to the model, the areas most at risk are the Tyrrhenian coast between Liguria, Tuscany, Lazio and Campania, with possible extensions into Umbria.Rainfall in the north-west began in the early morning hours.
Scirocco in the south, snow on the Alps
Whilst maximum temperatures in northern and central Italy are not expected to rise above 15 to 24 degrees, the Scirocco has temporarily sent the south back into summer. In Palermo, 30 degrees were recorded on Thursday; Catania saw 29. The warm southerly wind from the Sahara is acting as a classic precursor to the approaching cold front.On Sicily, locally up to 32 degrees remain possible before the weather turns there as well.
In the north-west, afternoon temperatures are below 15 degrees. Autumnal dampness prevails across much of the Pianura Padana and in Liguria di Ponente. The snowline on the Alps stood at 2,500 metres during the morning and is falling to around 2,000 metres as the day progresses. The weather pattern is thus effectively split in two: high summer in the south, the onset of winter in the north-west.
Sharp temperature drop at the weekend, Medicane does not materialise
The real test comes at the weekend. Between Friday, 9 October, and Saturday, 10 October, the cold front will reach the south. Temperatures are then expected to dropby more than ten to twelve degrees within just a few hours. The Scirocco heat on Sicily will collapse abruptly. Further precipitation will affect central and southern Italy before the situation settles during the course of Saturday.
The possibility of a Medicane, a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone, which was discussed at the start of the week, has not been confirmed. None of the Italian meteorological services has so far reported a Tropical-Like Cyclone over the central Mediterranean. The situation therefore remains within the bounds of a typical autumn pattern,even if rainfall totals are extreme in isolated locations.
Outlook
After the weekend, the situation is expected to calm down initially. The Protezione Civile is updating its warning notices via the national Allertamento system. Those travelling in Rome, Tuscany or Sardinia this week are advised to avoidriver courses, flooded underpasses and hillside areas. The situation remains tense particularly in Lazio south of Rome, in Pomezia and along the Pontina Vecchia.
